Shock poll: Nate Silver’s election forecast now has Trump winning
“FiveThirtyEight’s “now-cast,” Silver’s model, considers more than just polling in its forecast and currently predicts the popular vote going 45.4 percent to Trump vs. 45.1 percent to Clinton, with the Electoral College giving Trump 285 votes and Clinton 252.6. This is the first time the “now-cast” forecast has been projected Trump to win.”
It isn’t as simple as a post-convention bounce, the FiveThirtyEight polling guru explains
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